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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-04-10T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-04-10T11:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10471/-1
CME Note: CME associated with large filament eruption situated close to N18E29 starting around 10UTC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-04-14T06:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-04-13T18:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-04-10T17:23Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 606km/s
Longitude (deg): 25N
Latitude (deg): 25E
Half-angular width (deg): 35 

Notes: This CME left the NE quadrant and may have Minor to Moderate peripheral impacts at Earth, although with low confidence that it will be detectable.
Space weather advisor: MOSWC

Lead Time: 73.08 hour(s)
Difference: 12.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-04-11T05:45Z

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